DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN CO/SWRN KS SWD INTO ERN NM/WRN OK AND SWRN TX... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID-UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SRN CANADA. A SURFACE LOW OVER SRN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE NEWD TOWARDS JAMES BAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. FARTHER W...A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN CA AND A LEAD IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN KS/SERN CO... A LEE TROUGH AND THE WESTWARD RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN NM/W TX. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM THE CO/KS/OK REGION TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF W TX. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST /20-30 KT/...SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN INITIAL HAIL/WIND THREAT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM W/NW NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 35 KT BY 03Z. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A STORM CLUSTER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE GUSTS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR WRN OK AND THE TX S PLAINS. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS ATTM IN STORM COVERAGE FARTHER S OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SW TX. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR HIGHER STORM COVERAGE...HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...CNTRL/SRN GREAT LAKES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A FETCH OF 60S DEG F DEWPOINTS. WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST AND SUPPORT A MULTICELLULAR MODE. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENS DURING THE EVENING. ...CAROLINAS COAST... T.D. TWO OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY. WEAK BUOYANCY/WIND PROFILE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT MOVES ASHORE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM. ..SMITH.. 05/28/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/GB0aDL
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