DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS AND NWRN NEB... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...N-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN MN... MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND MOVE EWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INVOKE MOISTURE TO STREAM NWD ON SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER WLY/S OVERSPREADING THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS MOVING E/SE ACROSS SD AND PERHAPS NEB DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN AN ISOLD THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL LIKELY FOCUS WIDELY-SPACED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD ON SLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S TO 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING/MIXING OCCURS. STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY /SBCAPE 1500-3500 J/KG/. A BELT OF STRONGER MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE LARGE BUOYANCY AND SLY WINDS VEERING TO WLY WITH HEIGHT. YET...WEAK FORCING ALOFT IN AREAS CASTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SWD. HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE POTENTIAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOP AND GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES. ...NEW ENGLAND... A BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG WSWLY H5 FLOW /30-40 KT/ ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY 3 PERIOD. UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND TO THE 60S OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND HEATING WILL RESULT IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLD STORMS DEVELOPING BY THE MID AFTERNOON. ISOLD STRONG DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF A WIND-DAMAGE RISK AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE ACTIVITY WEAKENING BY EARLY EVENING. ..SMITH.. 05/28/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/GAMjPN
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