SPC Aug 7, 2016 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH WED /DAY 4/
REGARDING EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG PACIFIC NW
COAST. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ERN MT WED BEFORE
CONTINUING THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER NRN ND AND SRN CANADA
WED NIGHT. SFC LOW INITIALLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL ADVANCE EWD
DURING THE DAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD INTO ND AND CNTRL/NRN
MN. TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING NORTH OF
THE WARM SECTOR...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN HOW MANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP
ALONG TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING STORMS...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT NWD AND WEAKEN WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER ND. 

BEYOND DAY 4 PREDICTABILITY DECREASES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF ONGOING STORMS AS WELL AS INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

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