SPC Aug 8, 2016 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2016

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT PRIMARY/STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN MANITOBA DAY 4 /THU/ THEN INTO SRN QUEBEC
DAY 5 /FRI/. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN
MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY THU. AS
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM SFC LOW OVER ERN SD EARLY
THU WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS.
A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL RESIDE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE FRONT WITH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT. SOME THREAT WILL EXIST
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL
THREAT MAY BE TEMPERED BY EXPECTED MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. A
MODEST SEVERE THREAT MAY SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES DAY 5 AND
POSSIBLY THE NERN U.S. THROUGH OH VALLEY DAY 6...BUT TENDENCY WILL
BE FOR THE MORE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. GIVEN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW PREDICTABILITY FOR THESE AREAS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES.

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