SPC MD 1491

MD 1491 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL/WRN AR.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN AR.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 071904Z - 072100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

DISCUSSION...AT 19Z...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS NWRN AR.
WHILE THE CLUSTER HAS NOT PRODUCED NOTABLE WIND GUSTS THUS
FAR...RADAR INDICATES SOME RECENT SWD ACCELERATION OF THE
SYSTEM...LIKELY DUE TO A MATURING COLD POOL AND PERHAPS ALSO AIDED
BY SOMEWHAT ENHANCED NLY FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER NOTED ON REGIONAL
12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT VWPS. SOME INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A WARM/VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WHERE MODERATE-TO-STRONG BUOYANCY IS DEVELOPING AS SFC
TEMPS WARM ABOVE 90F...THOUGH WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLUSTER AS IT ADVANCES SWD
THROUGH ARKANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 08/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35469433 35739427 35719415 35909316 35179198 34449166
            33759157 33429201 33129246 33189332 33629396 33799434
            34869432 35469433 

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