SPC MD 1492

MD 1492 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN CO...FAR NERN NM...WRN OK PANHANDLE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...FAR NERN NM...WRN OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 071934Z - 072200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR RISK WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN CO/FAR NERN NM/WRN OK PANHANDLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...TSTM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE...A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD FROM WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN DENVER
AND COLORADO SPRINGS...AND AT THE EDGE OF THE DEEPEST BOUNDARY LAYER
IN NERN NM. CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FOSTER AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT STEMMING FROM ASCENT ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FOCI AND SUBSEQUENT ACTIVITY SPREADING GENERALLY EWD.
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY AND EDGE OF DEEPEST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SURMOUNTING MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING
MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS CAPABLE
OF ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS -- ESPECIALLY IF LOCALIZED COLD-POOL
AMALGAMATION WERE TO BREED LOOSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING IN ERN CO.
WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND AN OVERALL DEARTH OF DEEP SHEAR WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY MARGINALIZE THE SVR RISK.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 08/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36500332 36920418 38220486 39240489 39890369 39570295
            37790228 36980205 36670243 36500332 

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