SPC MD 1493

MD 1493 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NRN OK...FAR SRN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...FAR SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 071945Z - 072145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A
DAMAGING WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE
FAR NE TX PANHANDLE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NRN OK. SUBSTANTIAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NRN OK WILL AID IN MAINTAINING THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
ENEWD THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MIDLEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES /NOTED IN RECENT VNX VWP DATA/ MAY SUPPORT
SOME ORGANIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD POSE A RISK
OF DAMAGING WIND GIVEN LARGE PW VALUES AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. AT THIS TIME...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR WATCH ISSUANCE...THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM AND
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 08/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   35760031 36170026 36630002 36829987 37109872 37439720
            37519651 36769604 36009582 35849631 35719694 35679759
            35649841 35629920 35760031 

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