SPC MD 1497

MD 1497 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL MONTANA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MONTANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 080000Z - 080200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...UNLESS CONVECTION SHOWS SIGNS OF MORE SUBSTANTIVE UPSCALE
GROWTH AND INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE ISSUANCE
OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTH/EAST OF HELENA THROUGH AREAS BETWEEN GREAT
FALLS AND LEWISTOWN.  THIS IS LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING
THE MONTANA ROCKIES...AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE TOWARD SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVENING.  STORMS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 50 KT 500 MB JET STREAK. 
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIMITED/ISOLATED...PROBABLY LARGELY DUE TO MODEST TO WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY.  AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL http://MONTANA...NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF LEWISTOWN...INTO
THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.  POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE SIGNIFICANT
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH CURRENTLY SEEMS LOW...BUT MAY NOT YET BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

..KERR/GUYER.. 08/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   47311209 47991171 48791039 48850921 48290804 47080869
            45660980 45331115 45651172 46211140 47311209 

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