SPC MD 1902

MD 1902 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NM...SOUTHEAST CO...AND THE NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 1902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

Areas affected...Northeast NM...southeast CO...and the northwest TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250836Z - 251100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely develop in a band from northeast
NM and spread across southeast CO and the northwest TX Panhandle
09-12z.  Isolated strong/damaging winds will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Rapid low-level moistening/destabilization is underway
across the northwest TX Panhandle, northeast NM, and southeast CO as
upper 40s to middle 50s surface dewpoints surge to the
north-northwest on 30-55 kt low-level flow.  A focused band of
ascent is now emerging east of the Front Range in NM in advance of a
strong midlevel trough moving over western NM.  This band of ascent
will encounter the increasing low-level moisture and expanding
corridor of near-surface-based buoyancy near or after 09z, when new
thunderstorm development is expected.  The low-level moistening
appears to be sufficient for storms rooted at the surface, in an
environment with strengthening deep-layer south-southwesterly flow,
which will support effective bulk shear in excess of 70 kt.  Thus,
some organized structure of the convection is expected (potentially
with embedded weakly rotating elements), which will be capable of
producing isolated strong/damaging gusts.

..Thompson/Edwards.. 12/25/2016

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36590211 35380247 34960315 34940396 35270423 36640417
            37310412 37670386 37920337 37870239 37470211 36590211 

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