SPC MD 1904

MD 1904 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN KS...OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 1904
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

Areas affected...Southwestern KS...OK Panhandle...extreme northern
TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 251316Z - 251445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection will slowly intensify along consolidating
dryline/cold front from southwestern KS into the northern TX
Panhandle through mid morning.  Isolated damaging gusts will be
possible with primarily linear convection.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery and lightning detection data suggest that
convection is slowly intensifying across southwestern KS.  The
convective band corresponds to the eastern edge of a band of
strong/deep ascent and the surface wind shift/cold front.  As the
weakly unstable surface warm sector continues to spread northward
into southwestern KS, the storms should continue to intensify and
become largely rooted at the surface.  Given the very strong
low-midlevel wind/shear profiles over the area, fast-moving line
segments may produce isolated damaging gusts this morning.  The need
for a watch is somewhat in question at the moment, but this area
will be monitored closely for possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance by 14-15z.

..Thompson/Edwards.. 12/25/2016

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   37219963 36400008 36230042 36260151 36780173 37530166
            38200146 38590127 38920058 38989999 38879954 38549930
            38109932 37219963 

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