Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models suggest that a pair of speed maxima (on the order of 50-70 kt at 500 mb), within somewhat consolidated mid/upper troughing, will progress east northeast of the southern Rockies on Sunday. This may support further deepening of a low center within lee surface troughing, across the mid Missouri Valley, maintaining fairly strong southerly low-level flow across lower portions of the central Plains into the lower/mid Missouri Valley. Although low-level Gulf moisture return within a narrow corridor to the east of the surface trough may remain somewhat modest, it probably will improve at least somewhat, beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with mid-level cold advection atop a plume of warm elevated mixed layer air across the central Plains. By late Sunday afternoon, mixed-layer CAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg, and the environment may become conducive to initiation of discrete supercells, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into an evolving convective system, in the presence of favorable large-scale forcing aided by southerly 850 mb jet intensification to 40-50+ kt Sunday evening. This probably will be accompanied by at least the risk for severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. Other, strong/severe storm development may be possible along the dryline, southward across parts of Oklahoma into Texas, but coverage is still expected to remain more sparse across these areas than areas to the north. The possible stabilizing influence of residual convection from Sunday, and weakening of the surface low, result in uncertain severe weather potential as the upper impulse tracks toward the Great Lakes region on Monday. Thereafter, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the upper pattern may begin to amplify once again, with troughing across parts of the eastern Pacific into the Intermountain West, and across the Atlantic Seaboard into the western Atlantic, with ridging from near the Rockies to the vicinity of the Appalachians. This seems likely to be accompanied by generally low severe weather potential through the middle portions of next week.Read more
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