SPC Jan 14, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AZ...SOUTHERN NM...AND SOUTHWEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail and
gusty winds will be possible over parts of southeast Arizona,
southern New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

...20Z Update...
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to continue increasing across
southeastern AZ this afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with
an upper low overspreads this area. Modest diurnal heating has
allowed surface temperatures to reach into the 60s at lower
elevations, and RAP forecast soundings suggest weak instability (up
to 500 J/kg MLCAPE) may develop with cold temperatures aloft, even
though low-level moisture remains limited. A marginal threat for
hail and strong to locally damaging winds will continue across
southeastern AZ and southwestern NM through the early evening hours,
and should shift eastward into more of southern NM and southwest TX.

..Gleason.. 01/14/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

...AZ/NM/TX...
A compact upper low off the coast of Baja will track eastward into
northwest Mexico tonight.  Increasing large scale lift will spread
across the southwest US states, resulting in scattered showers and
thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and tonight.  Latest
observational trends and model guidance suggests that a corridor of
sufficient CAPE may develop later today from parts of southwest TX
westward into southeast AZ to pose some risk of a few stronger
thunderstorm cores.  Forecast soundings in this region show steep
mid level lapse rates and favorable vertical shear profiles -
despite rather weak low level moisture values.  This may be
sufficient for a few rotating storms capable of hail and gusty
winds.  The primary threat over AZ will be during peak heating,
while the threat farther east over NM/TX may be early evening.

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/u32qoI