SPC MD 45

MD 0045 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...NORTHWEST OK....EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 0045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Areas affected...South-central KS...northwest OK....eastern OK
panhandle...northeastern TX panhandle

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 141924Z - 142330Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to continue across the region
with the highest freezing rain rates anticipated across far
northwest OK and south-central KS. Freezing rain rates in these
areas may exceed 0.02 inch per hour.

DISCUSSION...The area of precipitation currently moving across the
northeastern TX panhandle, eastern OK panhandle, and far
northwestern OK is expected to continue gradually northeastward as
warm-air advection persists ahead of the upper low centered near the
central Baja Peninsula. Precipitation rates within this area have
reached as high as 0.26 inch an hour (on the BGD ob at 1751Z) with
numerous observations across the area also reporting ice accretion
from 0.02 inch to 0.08 inch an hour.

The airmass into which this area of precipitation is moving (i.e.
across south-central KS) is currently characterized by temperatures
in the low 30s and dewpoints in the low teens. Modest mid-level dry
air was present in the 12Z DDC sounding but persistent precipitation
into this layer will eventually result in a moist profile supportive
of surface precipitation. Even with this moist profile, a pronounced
a warm nose of 6-7 deg C near 850mb will remain, supporting a
primary precipitation type of freezing rain. Given the dry airmass
in place, wet-bulb effects at the surface will likely result in some
modest cooling of the surface temperatures as the precipitation
persists and/or becomes heavier. The end result will be light to
moderate freezing rain, with freezing rain rates from 0.02 to 0.05
inch per hour. Some transient convective cores are also possible,
with isolated instances of freezing rain rates of 0.10 inch per hour
possible.

For areas farther southwest (i.e. the northeastern TX panhandle),
freezing rain is expected to persist for the next hour or so before
continue advection of warm air into the region raises surface
temperatures above freezing.

..Mosier.. 01/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36840092 37290036 37669975 37899924 38069870 38119852
            38109831 38009804 37729780 37149777 36589792 35969840
            35569882 35209955 34830087 34900169 35460199 36110177
            36840092 

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