Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail and gusty winds will persist from southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico and far west Texas this evening. ...Southeast AZ through southern NM and far west TX... Widely scattered thunderstorms will persist this evening within corridor of ascent accompanying a cutoff upper low circulation centered near the northern Baja area. Despite limited low-level moisture with 40s F dewpoints, 7-7.5 C/km 850-500 mb lapse rates and earlier diabatic warming contributed to MLCAPE up to 800 J/kg as indicated by the 00Z El Paso raob. As the boundary layer stabilizes, storms have become at least slightly elevated, but effective shear through the convective layer remains sufficient for supercell structures, posing a risk for hail and downburst winds. Activity will gradually develop through southern New Mexico and west TX overnight as primary zone of forcing for ascent expands east, but tendency should be for storms to weaken as they intercept wedge of cold, stable air east of the higher terrain. Other storms are developing over the higher terrain of southwest TX. This activity will pose at a marginal, short-term risk for hail and downburst winds, but will eventually move north above the wedge of shallow, stable air northeast of the mountains. ..Dial.. 01/15/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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