SPC MD 46

MD 0046 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ...SOUTHERN NM...THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF FAR WEST TX

Mesoscale Discussion 0046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern AZ...southern
NM...the Trans-Pecos region of far west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142134Z - 150000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for isolated strong thunderstorms will affect the
region into the evening hours. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Recycled moisture along the southwestern rim of a broad
surface anticyclone positioned over the Central States is combining
with sufficient diurnal heating to support modest destabilization
across the area. Visible imagery highlights arcs of deepening
convective development from the Mogollon Rim toward the southeast AZ
mountains and eastward across southwest NM. This activity is being
encouraged by large-scale ascent preceding a midlevel cyclone
presently crossing the Baja Peninsula, and is being further aided by
diurnally enhanced orographic circulations. Additional diurnal
heating amidst the weakly capped environment will likely foster an
increase in convective coverage/intensity during the next few hours,
with scattered thunderstorms spreading across the area into the
evening hours. For areas from south-central NM to portions of the TX
Trans-Pecos region, the risk for storms could be delayed until the
early evening hours.

The presence of around 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear could
support a few sustained/organized convective elements -- perhaps
including small bowing segments and possibly transient supercell
structures. Locally strong winds gusts and small hail should be the
primary concerns with this activity, though a few sporadic,
marginally severe thunderstorms could occur. The overall dearth of
buoyancy attributable to limited boundary-layer moisture should
temper convective intensity. However, strong-storm potential will
likely persist into the evening hours -- especially from southern NM
into far West TX -- as the midlevel cyclone advances eastward.

..Cohen/Hart.. 01/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31361040 32841095 34201250 34621320 34981284 34601075
            33920827 32650608 31650514 30760499 30740544 31570647
            31720739 31630807 31290813 31230929 31361040 

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