Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat with large hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes may occur today and tonight primarily across parts of Texas with a more marginal risk for damaging wind into southern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Upper low situated over northwest Mexico will reach the southern High Plains of west TX this afternoon before continuing northeast into OK late tonight. The attendant surface low will develop from far west TX this morning to west central TX by evening then into north central TX overnight. A warm front initially from south central through southeast TX will move north, reaching the TX/OK border late tonight. A Pacific cold front will advance east through west and central TX. By the end of this period the cold front should extend from a surface low in central OK southward through northeast and south TX. ...Texas... A modifying Gulf boundary layer over the south TX warm sector will advect north through central and east TX as a southerly low-level jet strengthens in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Northward advance of the warm sector should remain more limited across west TX where wedge of modified arctic air is being reinforced by ongoing precipitation. Strongest instability with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely evolve from near the Big Bend into south central TX where northwest extension of richer gulf moisture plume will advect beneath eastern periphery of a modest elevated mixed layer. Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing primarily from parts of west TX into much of NM. The boundary layer will destabilize during the day from southwest into south central TX where the potential for diabatic warming will be greatest south of the front. Additional storms will develop, most likely over the higher terrain of southwest TX and along advancing cold front. Activity will continue developing east and northeast through central TX as the downstream atmosphere destabilizes. Strong 45+ kt effective bulk shear will support organized storm structures including supercells and lines with bowing segments. The stronger storms will be capable of producing damaging wind, large hail and a few tornadoes during the day and into the evening with a more marginal risk continuing into the late night, possibly as far north as southern OK. The vertical wind profiles in the presence of moderate instability appear to support the potential for a few instances of significant severe weather, mainly over a portion of southwest and central TX. An upgrade to higher probabilities might be needed in future updates once more confidence is attained regarding evolution of the mesoscale environment. ..Dial/Dean.. 01/15/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/s7Jkvo
No comments:
Post a Comment