Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Monday across east Texas northeastward into northwestern Louisiana and Arkansas. ...East TX/Northwest Louisiana/Arkansas... An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward from the southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. At the surface, a low is forecast to move northeastward across eastern Kansas as a corridor of low-level moisture sets up from the Texas Coastal Plains northeastward into the Arklatex ahead of a cold front. Model forecasts suggest that thunderstorms will be possible and ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings just to the east of the front from near College Station, TX to Texarkana at 00Z/Tuesday show surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F, MLCAPE approaching 500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of 55 to 60 Kt and steep low-level lapse rates. This may be enough for a marginal severe threat around peak heating with hail and strong wind gusts possible. Subsidence in the wake of the upper-level trough and weak instability will be factors that help minimize the overall severe threat. Further to the northeast across Arkansas, thunderstorms may develop near the axis of the upper-level trough where instability is forecast to be minimal but deep-layer shear should be quite strong. In spite of cool surface temperatures, the enhanced vertical shear may be enough for a few strong updrafts capable of producing hail. ..Broyles.. 01/15/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/sd6f6z
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