Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible across the lower to middle Texas Coastal Plains on Tuesday. ...Texas Coastal Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low will move northeastward into the upper Rio Grande Valley today as southwest mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southward into south central Texas extending northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plains. South of the front, surface dewpoints appear likely to be in the mid to upper 60s F which should result in some destabilization by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak, low-level convergence along the front may be enough along with surface heating to allow for scattered thunderstorm development from the late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z/Tuesday near Corpus Christi show MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of 55 to 60 kt and steep low-level lapse rates. This may be enough for a marginal severe threat with hail and strong wind gusts as the primary threats. Further northeastward across southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, thunderstorms will also be possible along the cold front Tuesday afternoon. Along this corridor, instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker with northeastward extent. This combined with an upper-level ridge in the lower Mississippi Valley will probably limit severe threat potential across the region. ..Broyles.. 01/16/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/sd6f6z
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