Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST TX TO MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this morning over east Texas, and in the late afternoon and evening from the Arklatex to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds, a brief tornado, and small to marginally severe hail are anticipated. ...East TX to Mid-MS Valley... Surface cyclone over south-central KS will shift into northeast MO by evening. Attendant Pacific cold front will arc south then southwest, becoming quasi-stationary across parts of southeast to south-central TX. Partially modified Gulf air will advect north ahead of this front, with upper 50s F dewpoints as far north as the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers and generally 60s F from the Mid-South to western Gulf Coast. A swath of showers and rather isolated thunderstorms are ongoing within the warm-conveyor belt from MO to east TX. This convection should decrease in coverage and intensity into early afternoon, but widespread clouds should persist over much of warm sector. Weak mid-level lapse rates will further limit instability with MLCAPE largely at or below 500 J/kg. Potential will exist for widely scattered thunderstorms to redevelop in the late afternoon and early evening near the impinging cold front. 35-45 kt effective shear would support a conditional risk for organized updrafts/line segments. However, stronger large-scale ascent should remain divorced from where surface-based instability is prevalent. This in conjunction with the overall marginal thermodynamic environment should limit a more substantial severe threat. ..Grams.. 01/16/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rATNzD
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