Monday, January 23, 2017

SPC Jan 23, 2017 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from Arizona into northern New
Mexico Tuesday.  Isolated storms may also develop from Iowa into
northern Illinois.

...AZ/NM...

Steep lapse rates are expected to spread along a corridor from the
desert southwest into the southern Rockies, just north of a strong
jet where 500mb temperatures will be at least -30c.  Although
moisture will be scant, strong diabatic heating combined with
orographic forcing is expected to contribute to weak convection that
could generate isolated lightning during the afternoon hours.

...IA/WI/IL...

Exit region of southern Rockies jet will induce lee cyclogenesis
late day1 over CO.  This feature will track northeast toward
southern Lake Michigan and ascent should increase within a warm
advection zone from eastern NE to northern IL such that elevated
convection is expected to develop.  Forecast soundings suggest LCL
heights will be between 850-750mb and MUCAPE could be on the order
of a few hundred J/kg.  This activity will evolve along the nose of
a pronounced LLJ, possibly reaching the shores of lake MI by early
evening.

..Darrow.. 01/23/2017

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