Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from Arizona into northern New Mexico Tuesday. Isolated storms may also develop from Iowa into northern Illinois. ...AZ/NM... Steep lapse rates are expected to spread along a corridor from the desert southwest into the southern Rockies, just north of a strong jet where 500mb temperatures will be at least -30c. Although moisture will be scant, strong diabatic heating combined with orographic forcing is expected to contribute to weak convection that could generate isolated lightning during the afternoon hours. ...IA/WI/IL... Exit region of southern Rockies jet will induce lee cyclogenesis late day1 over CO. This feature will track northeast toward southern Lake Michigan and ascent should increase within a warm advection zone from eastern NE to northern IL such that elevated convection is expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest LCL heights will be between 850-750mb and MUCAPE could be on the order of a few hundred J/kg. This activity will evolve along the nose of a pronounced LLJ, possibly reaching the shores of lake MI by early evening. ..Darrow.. 01/23/2017Read more
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