Mesoscale Discussion 0130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017
Areas affected...West-central Florida Gulf Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 230956Z - 231130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, primarily
along the west-central Florida Gulf Coast, as a fast-moving band of
thunderstorms moves onshore from Tampa/St. Petersburg to Fort Myers
between 10-11Z. The threat for strong wind gusts will be greatest
near the coast.
DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery and IR satellite imagery showed a
fast-moving (50 kt) band of low-topped thunderstorms approaching the
west-central Florida Gulf Coast, with this band expected to reach
the Tampa/St. Petersburg area around 10Z, and then into Fort Myers
by 11Z. This activity was located within the leading area of upward
vertical motion with a progressive shortwave trough advancing east
through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Marginal instability and a
steep low-level lapse rate environment (0-3 km of 7-7.5 c/km) near
the coast could prove favorable for momentum transfer of stronger
winds to the surface. A more stable low-level environment inland
away from the coast should allow the storms to weaken and limit
stronger winds from reaching the surface.
..Peters/Thompson.. 01/23/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...
LAT...LON 28008287 27968266 27368248 26838214 26658224 26948258
27548289 27918292 28008287
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/wXDIlY
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