Mesoscale Discussion 0062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017
Areas affected...From central and southern Arkansas toward the
Arklatex area
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 162002Z - 162200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The area from central AR into northern LA and northeast TX
is being monitored for possible storm development, and a threat of
an isolated tornado this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front now into southern
AR with temperatures and dewpoints rising into the mid 70s and 60s
respectively. Just to the west, a slow-moving cold front was
situated from northeast TX into western AR, with deepening showers
and a few lightning strikes along it as of 20Z.
Area VWPs show strong low-level shear especially along the warm
front with 0-3 srh in excess of 300 m2/s2. This is overlapping with
the instability axis of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE near the AR/LA border.
The upper trough will continue to pull away from the area, with some
veering of the low-level winds. However, through afternoon, there
may be a window where storms can become strong enough to take
advantage of the better shear, with a weak tornado possible. At this
time, a watch is not expected to be issued unless storm trends
increase beyond isolated.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 01/16/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 32499461 33909370 34839298 35009235 34809188 34299138
33849123 33309137 32729182 32369235 32189295 32109339
32239444 32499461
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/WouSJ6
No comments:
Post a Comment