Thursday, March 2, 2017

SPC Mar 2, 2017 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2017

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may occur along the Pacific Northwest coastal
area on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A progressive low-amplitude upper pattern will prevail across the
U.S. Saturday. Embedded in this regime, an upper trough will move
into the Pacific Northwest, while a southern-stream shortwave trough
affects portions of southwest and southern Texas. 

...Pacific Northwest...

Steep mid-level lapse rates with cold air aloft accompanying the
upper trough will contribute to weak instability along the OR and WA
coasts. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will develop within
this regime, becoming more numerous along a cold front that will
move onshore during the late afternoon.

...South Central through South Texas...

Weakening southern-stream trough will move through northern Mexico
and a portion of TX this period. Modified continental-polar air will
return through south TX, but weak lapse rates and widespread clouds
will result in only very weak instability (MUCAPE at or below 200
J/kg). While rain and numerous showers will likely develop in this
regime, current indications are that instability will probably
remain too limited for more than 10% coverage of thunderstorms.

..Dial.. 03/02/2017

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