SPC Mar 2, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2017

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model consensus is that a progressive upper pattern will persist
through the day 4-8 period. However, as early as day 5 (Monday)
increasing ensemble spreads arise regarding the evolution of an
upper trough forecast to move through the Central Plains into the
middle to upper MS Valley. Moisture return preceding this feature
will also be somewhat limited. Although some model solutions
indicate a threat for severe storms might evolve on day 5 (Monday)
anywhere from the Southern Plains to middle MS Valley, confidence is
not sufficient at this time to introduce a 15% probability area.

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