SPC Mar 25, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur through
the early evening hours across the central Gulf Coast States
northward into the middle Mississippi River Valley.

...Discussion...
Only notable change with this update is the focusing of slight risk
/ higher damaging-wind probabilities closer to the Gulf Coast, where
more substantial moisture and greater resultant buoyancy exist ahead
of a line of strong to occasionally severe storms. Through the
evening hours, stronger low/mid-level flow should depart to the
northeast, favoring a gradual weakening trend. 

Farther west, strong to briefly severe thunderstorms may continue to
develop along pre-frontal confluence over central Mississippi and
vicinity. For more information, reference Mesoscale Discussion 331.

..Picca.. 03/25/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

...Gulf Coast/lower MS River Valley/Mid-South...
Well ahead of the synoptic cold front, the outflow-focused remnants
of last night's convection continue to decelerate while slowly
progressing into western AL, while otherwise stalling along coastal
LA. It appears the strongest/most organized convection will remain
semi-focused this afternoon across southeast LA and possibly
near-coastal portions of MS/AL into the FL panhandle.
Low/mid-tropospheric winds should continue to gradually weaken
during the day, but some additional heating/destabilization will
nonetheless support some stronger mostly linear storms capable of
locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado. 

Otherwise, a few stronger storms could redevelop this afternoon
across the Mid-South/Lower MS River Valley vicinity near/just ahead
of the synoptic front within a modestly unstable environment.
However, semi-prevalent cloud cover and weakening mass convergence
should limit any such risk. 

...Middle MS River Valley...
The slow-moving closed/cold cyclone will continue to drift
east-northeastward today from the Ozarks toward central/southern IL
by tonight. Immediately ahead of this nearly stacked low, locally
stronger heating (60s F surface temperatures) and moderately steep
lapse rates, as noted between 850mb-650mb in the 12Z observed
sounding from Springfield MO, could support some stronger updrafts
this afternoon. Marginally severe and gusty winds could occur, and
sufficient low-level moisture/ambient vorticity could allow for a
few funnels.

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