Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TN RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF MS/AL TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Lower Ohio/Mississippi River Valleys and Tennessee Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern MO late this morning will continue generally eastward and reach the middle OH River Valley by late tonight. A preceding belt of 40-50 kt west-southwesterly mid level winds will continue to overspread an increasingly moist, albeit modestly so, warm sector. Ahead of an eastward-moving cold front currently across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints will continue to become increasingly common across eastern AR, northern MS into western TN, northward into western KY. While warm-sector cloud cover has remained semi-prevalent thus far, some cloud breaks are noted in visible satellite imagery an additional thinning seems likely in concert especially with the eastward-spread mid/high-level dry slot as per water vapor satellite imagery. Linearly organized convection across far northeast AR/far southeast MO late this morning should continue to spread east-northeastward and increase in coverage/intensify into northwest TN and western/central KY as the downstream air mass continues to moisten and destabilize. This activity will pose a damaging wind and severe hail risk, although a tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther south, other initially more discrete storms should develop within the warm sector this afternoon across additional portions of TN, far eastern AR, northern MS and eventually northwest AL later this afternoon/evening. Here, supercell-favorable wind profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates as noted per 12Z observed soundings will support large hail potential. A few tornadoes also appear possible, particularly around mid/late afternoon into early evening across western/middle portions of TN and northern MS and northwest AL. In this corridor, a modest westerly component of the mid-level winds will coincide with modestly strong low-level shear/SRH. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 03/27/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/wWCv9s
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