SPC Mar 31, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Some potential for a continuing risk for organized severe
thunderstorm development is evident over a rather broad swath from
the central through eastern Gulf states, and the southern
Appalachians through the middle and south Atlantic coast states,
perhaps as well as portions of the Ohio Valley, on Monday.  This
would accompany a deepening surface cyclone and associated upper
impulse emerging from the lower Rio Grande Valley late this weekend.
However, spread among the model output increases concerning the
track of cyclone to the northeast of the Ozark Plateau during the
day Monday.  Perhaps more significantly, it appears that extensive
pre-frontal convective development, extending southward into the
Gulf of Mexico, could cut-off richer boundary layer moisture return
off the Gulf into the warm sector of the cyclone by early Monday. 
Due to these uncertainties, among others, predictability issues
still preclude an outlook of 15 percent severe probabilities, even
across Mississippi/Alabama, where convection may be ongoing early
Monday.

Thereafter, medium-range guidance continues to indicate at least
some potential for significant surface cyclogenesis, from portions
of the southern Plains Tuesday through the Ohio Valley, and perhaps
to the lee of the central Appalachians, by the middle to latter
portion of next week, in association with an amplifying upper wave. 
Close on the heels of the preceding cyclone and associated cold
front, moisture return may be more problematic concerning warm
sector destabilization.  And the extent of any severe weather
potential remains unclear at this time.

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