SPC MD 249

MD 0249 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OH...WESTERN PA...WESTERN WV...AND EASTERN KY

Mesoscale Discussion 0249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Areas affected...Eastern OH...western PA...western WV...and eastern
KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 012056Z - 012300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds approaching severe levels may
occur with shallow convection along a cold front. Watch issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Since 19Z, showers/shallow convection have developed
along a cold front across eastern OH, with more isolated activity
across eastern KY. Very modest heating has occurred downstream per
visible satellite imagery and surface observations, and latest RAP
Mesoanalysis and forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg
may be present. While this meager instability will likely be
insufficient to support lightning discharges, it may be enough to
encourage some convective downdraft enhancement to already strong
gradient winds along/behind the front. Accordingly, there is a
marginal threat for isolated strong to perhaps damaging winds with
this shallow convection. The lack of more robust instability will
very likely preclude a more substantial severe threat, and watch
issuance is not expected.

..Gleason/Hart.. 03/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   37808373 40068252 41708131 41838076 41767976 41037971
            39268065 37638191 37348309 37808373 

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