Mesoscale Discussion 0330
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017
Areas affected...southeast LA...southeast MS and southwest AL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251708Z - 251945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few instances of strong to damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail will remain possible through mid afternoon.
At this time the overall threat appears marginal, and a WW will
probably not be necessary in this area unless storms begin to show
evidence of greater organization and intensification.
DISCUSSION...As of mid day a broken line of pre-frontal
thunderstorms extends from west central AL through southeast MS into
southeast LA and is moving east at 15-20 kt. Diabatic warming of the
boundary layer and modest low-level moisture advection have resulted
in marginal instability with MLCAPE at or below 500 J/kg over west
central through southwest AL to around 1000 J/kg over southeast MS.
The primary low-level jet will remain north of this region, and
winds aloft will gradually weaken in wake of a vorticity maximum
moving through the base of the upper low circulation. Thus vertical
wind profiles will become less favorable for storm organization as
the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Primary threat will be
from a few strong to damaging wind gusts with stronger storms within
the line.
..Dial/Guyer.. 03/25/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29619129 30009096 30338962 30768885 31268828 32248765
33268728 33138660 31368705 29178943 29229056 29619129
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