Mesoscale Discussion 0386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017
Areas affected...east-central and eastern NC...southeast VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 311357Z - 311600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storm organization is expected this morning. Isolated
damaging winds are becoming an increasing possibility along with a
low conditional risk for a weak tornado.
DISCUSSION...13z subjective surface mesoanalysis places a residual
frontal zone over the eastern shore of MD and arcing southwest into
south-central VA. The maritime air mass south of the front becomes
increasingly unstable with southward extent with surface
temperatures over southeast VA near 60 degrees F to the mid-upper
60s in eastern NC. Likewise, dewpoints correspondingly range from
the upper 50s over southeast VA and into the middle 60s within a
plume of richer moisture near and north of Cape Fear. Modifying the
12z MHX raob for 13z surface conditions within the moist axis yields
250-500 J/kg MLCAPE.
The KMHX VAD shows a veering wind profile with height and 200-300
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH and 40-kt effective shear. Given the low CAPE/high
shear setup, a conditional risk for isolated severe will probably
evolve as storms gradually intensify. Considerable cloudiness/rain
will limit greater destabilization and an overall greater severe
risk. Nonetheless, a couple of line segments (most likely over
southeast VA into far northeast NC) may pose an isolated damaging
wind hazard and a supercell or two (in addition to a line segment)
may yield a conditionally higher risk for isolated severe over
eastern NC.
..Smith/Hart.. 03/31/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34357874 36577822 37497743 37407654 36357560 35257555
33827795 34357874
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