SPC MD 387

MD 0387 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA

Mesoscale Discussion 0387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

Areas affected...northern NC and southern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 311808Z - 311915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated marginally severe hail and localized damaging
wind risk will probably develop.

DISCUSSION...Subjective surface analysis places a residual wedge
front/outflow boundary in a west-to-east orientation along the NC/VA
border.  To the south of the boundary, temperatures have warmed into
the lower 70 degrees F with dewpoints in the lower 60s.  As a
result, 0-3 km lapse rates are steepening and may aid in leading to
potential for localized damaging winds as storms develop and
intensify.  Strong southwesterly low- to mid-level flow (40-55 kt at
500 mb) will serve to organize updrafts.  Marginally severe hail and
gusty winds will be possible with the stronger cores as storms
develop eastward near/along the NC/VA border this afternoon.

..Smith/Hart.. 03/31/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36967973 36887843 36957715 36477680 36017730 35847830
            35748058 35938077 36967973 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/H5q5o7