Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AL...THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging wind are likely Monday, extending from southern Mississippi northeastward into South Carolina, with greatest tornado risk centered over southern Alabama. Damaging winds, possibly widespread and significant, are anticipated throughout much of the region. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will rapidly move eastward from the MS river across the OH/TN valleys with leading jet max shifting eastward across MS, AL, GA and TN. The primary surface low will shift from MO into IL with cold front moving rapidly eastward across MS into AL during the day. Significant severe thunderstorms are likely to exist along the front throughout the period. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northward across GA and the Carolinas during the day, contributing to moistening and destabilization which may support a separate area of new development, and sustain the cold front activity during the late afternoon and evening. Shear profiles will be strong across the entire region, supported by a 50-60 kt southerly 850 mb jet. The extreme shear and increasingly moist and unstable air mass will support a threat of tornadoes and damaging winds throughout the day, centered over AL. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... A line of severe thunderstorms capable of particularly damaging winds and tornadoes will be ongoing at 12Z Monday roughly from northwest AL into southern MS. Although the storm mode will be mostly linear along the front, embedded circulations and QLCS tornadoes are expected given strong shear profiles. In addition, discrete supercells may form ahead of the line, especially across the Moderate Risk area where instability will be greatest. A few strong tornadoes are possible in this corridor. There are predictability issues with the initial position of the early day storms. If they are farther west than expected, a more widespread wind threat could exist farther northwest than currently forecast. ...Eastern GA into SC... Several models support the idea of supercells forming along the returning warm front across eastern GA into western SC during the day. Forecast sounding show impressive hodographs supportive of supercell tornadoes given the favorable instability profiles. As such, have expanded the Enhanced Risk into the region. The ESRL HRRR model shows supercells developing around 18Z, moving into central SC by late afternoon and evening. ..Jewell.. 04/02/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/ws9HZn
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