SPC MD 402

MD 0402 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 109... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EAST TX AND FAR WESTERN LA

Mesoscale Discussion 0402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of far east TX and far western LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 109...

Valid 021722Z - 021845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 109 continues.

SUMMARY...Through 1830Z, the greatest tornado potential will exist
for locations near and surrounding the Lufkin area northeastward
toward areas around Shreveport and Natchitoches.

DISCUSSION...Surface pressure falls on the cooler side of an
outflow-reinforced warm front analyzed from Nacogdoches County TX to
Natchitoches Parish LA are associated with open-warm-sector
confluence from the Upper TX Coast northward to the warm front.
Convection continues developing along related convergence bands in
the weakly capped and strongly unstable warm sector, and will
continue spreading toward the warm frontal zone. As this activity
matures ahead of a remnant squall line crossing eastern portions of
central TX, tornado potential should increase given effective SRH
around 400 m2/s2 near the warm front. Significant tornadoes will be
possible.

..Cohen.. 04/02/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30869505 31209526 31749469 32019389 31979353 31719342
            31339358 31009424 30869505 

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