Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and isolated wind damage are expected to develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Other marginally severe storms with strong wind gusts may occur across eastern North Carolina. ...Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri... An upper-level trough is forecast to move east-southeastward across the southern and central Rockies into the High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central Plains during the day reaching northern Oklahoma and western Missouri by early evening. A capping inversion should prevent convective initiation along the front during the afternoon. The cap should weaken by early evening allowing for thunderstorm development to take place in southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. This convection is expected to develop southwestward into northeastern Oklahoma during by mid evening. GFS forecast soundings along this corridor at 03Z/Wednesday from Springfield to Tulsa show moderate instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg), 0-6 km shear around 50 kt and steep lapse rates from 700 to 500 mb. This should support supercell development with large hail. An isolated wind-damage threat should also accompany supercells and with the stronger multicell line-segments that organize along the front. ...Eastern North Carolina... An upper-level low is forecast to move northeastward, offshore but parallel to the North Carolina coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a corridor of low-level moisture is forecast in eastern North Carolina where convection may develop during the morning into early afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, moderate deep-layer shear and the moist boundary layer could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 04/23/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/GAMjPN
No comments:
Post a Comment