Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance is in generally good agreement that a mid-level trough will gradually amplify across parts of the central/eastern US during the middle and second half of the upcoming week. However, spatiotemporal details regarding smaller-scale, yet important, embedded impulses remain unclear. ...D5/Wednesday - D7/Friday: Eastern Texas to the Carolinas... Fairly rich moisture should return north across parts of the western Gulf Coast region through mid-week, as low-level flow turns southerly ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. In turn, buoyancy will increase ahead of a surface trough/front progressing east/southeast across the southern Plains. The combination of gradually increasing shear and the aforementioned buoyancy will likely yield a few rounds of severe weather across parts of the region from east Texas to the Carolinas during the second half of the week. However, guidance indicates several impulses within the sub-tropical jet will likely impact the timing/location of precipitation, with a resultant effect on the location of any favorable instability/shear overlap. As details regarding these features remain unclear, 15-percent probabilities are not introduced at this time. However, they could be needed in later outlooks.Read more
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