Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AREA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through about midday to early afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic. A marginal wind and hail risk will diminish slowly this morning across central Florida. ...Synopsis... Secondary cyclogenesis is underway near the Blue Ridge in northwest VA, where 3-6 mb pressure falls per two hours have been observed in advance of a negative tilt shortwave trough accelerating northeastward over the southern Appalachians. The northwest VA cyclone will deepen and move north-northeastward to eastern PA by early-mid afternoon. A trailing cold front will move off the NC coast by 18z, and the remaining warm sector near the Delmarva will be pinched off by 21z. ...Mid-Atlantic region through early afternoon... Overnight convection has lingered near the NC coast, and anvil cirrus has overspread eastern NC and southeastern VA this morning. Low-level moisture inflow across eastern NC/VA has been disrupted/reduced by this convection, and the clouds will likely slow surface heating prior to frontal passage. However, strong forcing for ascent and modest moisture recovery ahead of the front will support a severe-storm risk until the cold front moves offshore this afternoon. Very strong deep-layer shear and conditionally unstable midlevel lapse rates will support a risk for damaging winds and marginally severe hail with embedded cells/line segments, and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out with fast-moving cells. ...Central FL this morning... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms moving across central FL this morning is expected to weaken slowly as the strong midlevel shortwave trough passes well to the north of this area. Deep-layer shear and buoyancy will be sufficient for a marginal damaging wind risk this morning, prior to the storms weakening. ..Thompson/Cohen.. 04/06/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rATNzD
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