Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO WESTERN AZ... ...Synopsis... An embedded shortwave trough in larger-scale cyclonic flow will lead to stronger height falls over the southwestern deserts on Friday. This will bring even stronger north/northwesterly flow to the region as compared to the past few days. Further east, the mid/upper level west/southwesterly jet streak will continue to spread across NM into the southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure will extend from the southwest deserts to the southern High Plains while higher pressure begins to settle into the Pacific Northwest and northern portions of the Great Basin. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across much of the southwestern U.S, and widespread strong winds are expected with fire weather concerns again impacting parts of the southwestern states into TX. Across FL, a tightening surface pressure gradient is forecast as strong high pressure resides over the western Atlantic and the deepening low pressure over the southern High Plains. Drying will occur over portions of the central peninsula and fire weather concerns are anticipated. ...Lower CO Valley into western AZ... Intense north/northwest winds are expected to develop across the region by midday as temperatures warm into the 80s and low 90s. As this occurs, RH values will plummet from the single digits to low teens. Sustained winds from 20-30 mph with higher gusts will be common. Where fuels are available, critical fire weather conditions are expected. ...Portions of southern NM into west TX... Wind speeds will not be as strong as on Thursday, but still sufficient for fire weather concerns with sustained westerly winds from 15-25 mph expected. RH values will be somewhat marginal from 12-18 percent. Some brief/locally critical conditions will be possible, but these concerns are not expected to be as widespread as previous days. ...Portions of the central FL Peninsula... Strong heating during the day will allow temperatures to climb into the 90s and deep boundary-layer mixing will occur. This will allow relative humidity values to fall into the 35-45 percent range. Due to the modest surface pressure gradient increase across the region, wind speeds will be somewhat stronger than on Thursday at 10-15 mph. Some brief/spotty critical conditions can not be ruled out and an upgrade to critical could be needed in subsequent outlooks should wind speeds trend stronger and RH values lower. ...Southern CA coastal ranges and foothills... Strong northerly winds are expected across the region on Friday, along with warm temperatures and low RH values. While meteorological conditions would support elevated to critical conditions, fuels across the region are too moist and unreceptive to fire spread. ..Leitman.. 04/27/2017 ...Please see http://ift.tt/2i2um2s for graphic product...Read more
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