SPC MD 394

MD 0394 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU

Mesoscale Discussion 0394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 020020Z - 020145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized threat for strong wind gusts and large hail
may exist with cells crossing the Rio Grande River over the next
hour. However, the threat should remain too small in spatial extent
for watch issuance within the next 2-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Left and right splits of a cell that organized over the
Serranias del Burro are approaching the Rio Grande this evening,
aided by a band of ascent associated with an upper-level southerly
jet. While deeper moisture remains displaced to the east (evident in
the 00Z DRT sounding), steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
relatively straight, elongated hodographs (representing around 50-55
kt of effective shear) may maintain one or both of these cell splits
as they enter Texas. Moreover, occasional updraft organization from
strong southwesterly mid-level flow may yield isolated large hail.
Strong, gusty winds also remain a possibility considering the deeply
mixed boundary layer. Nonetheless, a lack of more substantial
moisture and forcing for ascent should keep this severe threat
brief/localized, precluding watch issuance.

By late evening into early tonight, a more substantial threat should
materialize, as low-level moisture surges west and convection
re-develops along higher terrain. However, this scenario will be
addressed in a later mesoscale discussion.

..Picca/Edwards.. 04/02/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...

LAT...LON   29810188 30050189 30270158 30220103 29810049 29510033
            29220049 29170073 29560121 29730143 29810188 

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