Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AND INCLUDING NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado will be possible this evening and overnight across central Texas into parts of southwest Texas. ...TX... Satellite imagery Saturday evening shows a closed mid- to upper-level low over the Desert Southwest and a mid-level vorticity maximum located over northwest Mexico. The vorticity maximum is forecast to move through the base of the larger-scale trough and reach the TX Big Bend region by early morning Sunday. Evening subjective surface analysis indicates a wavy cold front is draped from south-central OK into the Big Bend area. During the evening hours, a couple of isolated strong to severe storms are forecast across central TX and perhaps as far north as the Red River. Large hail and localized severe gusts are the main hazards. Beginning later this evening through the end of the Day 1 period, strengthening large-scale ascent will spread east across northern Mexico and into TX. Meanwhile in the low levels, southeasterly flow will advect richer moisture into the Hill Country and southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Forecast soundings show strong shear profiles supportive of organized storms. Early in the convective life cycle, supercells will be favored and an accompanying risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts. Although a weak inversion will likely persist, enlarging hodographs in the warm sector near the boundary may prove favorable for low-level mesocyclones and a tornado threat. During the 08-12z period, it seems likely additional intense storms will develop and grow upscale into an expanding thunderstorm cluster and result in a corresponding increase in the risk for severe gusts, in addition to large hail. ..Smith.. 04/02/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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