Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017
Areas affected...Portions of central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...
Valid 020144Z - 020245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
continues.
SUMMARY...The ongoing severe threat associated with Watch 106 will
likely be focused with a supercell thunderstorm over Coleman County
and nearby thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...KSJT radar data depict a high-precipitation supercell
over Coleman County as of 0130Z, with the overall storm motion
eastward around 15 kt. This storm has possessed a rather broad, but
persistent low/mid-level mesocyclone, in turn favoring this deviant
motion to the east. Additionally, updraft organization has promoted
considerable large-hail growth, with recent MRMS MESH and dual-pol
data suggesting hail diameters occasionally over 2 inches. Indeed, a
report of giant hail was received in Valera, TX at 0112Z.
As cell propagation takes this storm eastward into a plume of higher
surface dew points, a threat for large hail and damaging winds may
persist. However, a cold front is undercutting this supercell,
resulting in slow weakening with time. Occasional large hail may
remain possible with this cell or others developing over the
post-frontal stable layer this evening. As such, convective trends
could require watch extension in space/time over the next 1-2 hours.
..Picca.. 04/02/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
LAT...LON 31300090 31740012 32659919 32999893 33049850 32459837
31519845 31149926 31070045 31300090
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