Mesoscale Discussion 0447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southwest AL...southeast MS...western
FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 052029Z - 052300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for some potential of
severe-thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening.
While not likely, it is possible that a watch could be issued.
DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus development continues along a weak
front analyzed from southeast MS into southeast LA. The air mass
east of this boundary is only modestly capped based on the 18Z
Slidell sounding, which indicates MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg aided
by the inland extension of relatively rich Gulf moisture. Areas of
surface heating west of more widespread convection over GA into the
FL Panhandle will continue supporting destabilization, while the
southern extent of a shortwave trough approaches from the west.
Stronger deep ascent will reside well to the north of the Discussion
area, and low-level convergence remains weak per observational data.
These factors cast considerable doubt regarding the sustenance of
deep convection. Regardless, with 50-60 kt of effective shear
conditionally supporting organized convective structures/supercells,
a conditional severe risk could exist into the early evening.
However, confidence in sufficient severe coverage is quite limited
at present.
..Cohen/Hart.. 04/05/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30498709 30208889 30598910 31798838 32448773 32208707
31248661 30498709
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