SPC MD 451

MD 0451 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY

Mesoscale Discussion 0451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Southern and central Ohio...western West
Virginia...and far eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 052319Z - 060145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Areas downstream of WW 128 are being monitored for
convective potential after about 01Z.  A new severe thunderstorm
watch issuance is being considered.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of strong to severe convection continues
across southwestern Ohio and central Kentucky.  These storms were in
a strongly sheared, weakly to moderately unstable environment and
have a history of numerous reports of large hail, wind damage, and
few tornadoes.  These storms were moving rapidly northeastward
(45-60 knots) and should reach eastern portions of WW 128 around
00-01Z.

Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the extent of the severe
threat downstream of these areas.  Although surface temperatures
have warmed into the upper 70s in portions of the discussion area,
mid-40s dewpoints are contributing to negligible buoyancy
unsupportive of convection.  An increasing low-level jet across the
region may foster some moist advection in the region, although
models/observations only support low- to mid-50s dewpoints
developing in the region after dark, supporting very modest
instability.  Any convection that can persist in this weakly
unstable environment may foster a severe threat owing to very strong
mid/upper flow and convection fostering downward transport of that
momentum to the surface, although the persistence of this convection
with time into the evening remains in doubt.   Convective trends
will be monitored.

..Cook/Guyer.. 04/05/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   40448304 40618273 40668205 40508140 40068090 39368089
            38788106 37828156 37508176 37338210 37438265 37478310
            37598347 37798368 38008373 38298352 38508319 40448304 

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