Mesoscale Discussion 0453
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017
Areas affected...southern Georgia and Northern Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 060315Z - 060515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may continue to increase over southern GA and
northern FL into the early morning hours. Large hail, damaging wind
and a few tornadoes will be possible. Trends are being monitored for
a possible WW.
DISCUSSION...Late this evening water vapor imagery shows an area of
substantial mid-upper level moistening over the northeast Gulf
indicative of deeper ascent associated with a branch of the
subtropical jet. Rich boundary layer moisture exists in warm sector
with upper 60s to around 70F dewpoints supporting 2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
and strong vertical shear remains in place with sfc-6 km around 50
kt associated with an upper jet rotating through base of the
synoptic trough. Organized storms including supercells and bowing
segments appear likely. Moreover, the southern extension of the
low-level jet will maintain 0-1 km hodographs sufficient for a
threat of low-level mesocyclones and tornadoes as storms continue to
increase through the early morning.
..Dial/Guyer.. 04/06/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30098373 30778349 30748262 30938166 30098149 29528172
29008252 29688322 30098373
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