Mesoscale Discussion 0455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017
Areas affected...Western/central NC and southern VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 060451Z - 060645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...At least some increase in damaging wind potential, along
with a few instances of severe hail and possibly a brief tornado,
should develop northeastward overnight into central NC and southern
VA. A watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...A relatively well-organized quasi-linear band of
convection with embedded bows continues to gradually accelerate
northeastward across western portions of SC and NC. A 61 kt wind
gust was recently (416Z) measured at Anderson SC.
Upper-trough-related forcing for ascent will continue to increase
along with increasing deep-layer/low-level shear across the region.
The primary uncertainty, even in the short-term, remains the degree
of moistening/destabilization that will occur overnight across NC
into VA, particularly given extensive convection earlier in the day
across GA and the coastal Carolinas. Regardless, even modest
moistening (upper 50s to near 60F surface dewpoints) and weak
destabilization may be sufficient for a near-surface-based/mostly
quasi-linear severe risk overnight in the presence of a
strengthening wind field. Convective trends will continue to be
monitored for a possible watch issuance across central NC into
southern VA.
..Guyer.. 04/06/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 36148084 36978044 37777886 36337809 34608024 35988026
36148084
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