Mesoscale Discussion 0570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017
Areas affected...Southeast Mississippi...Western and Central Alabama
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167...168...
Valid 270636Z - 270830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167, 168
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
western and central Alabama. Wind damage and hail will be the
primary threats.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar analysis shows a mult-segmented line
of strong to severe thunderstorms from west of Birmingham, Alabama
southwestward into southern Mississippi. This line was located just
ahead of an axis moderate instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE
values in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range. This combined with large-scale
ascent associated with an upper-level trough in the lower
Mississippi Valley will continue to support the line for several
more hours. The WSR-88D VWP at Birmingham shows strong deep-layer
shear (0-6 km shear near 60 kt). This combined with surface winds
from the south-southeast ahead of the line will continue to support
organized bowing line segments with wind damage and hail potential.
The more intense updrafts may also rotate and have a potential for
isolated large hail. Model forecasts gradually veer the winds to the
south-southwest at the surface across southwest and central Alabama
later tonight suggesting that the severe threat should become
marginal. The corridor with the greatest severe threat should exist
to the south of Birmingham where the combination of shear and
instability is most favorable.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 04/27/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 33428763 32258901 31478963 30808930 31068761 31968650
33258622 33428763
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/HU7Kgk
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