SPC MD 573

MD 0573 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OH...NORTHEAST KY...WESTERN WV

Mesoscale Discussion 0573
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Areas affected...Central/eastern OH...Northeast KY...Western WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271928Z - 272130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging winds will increase as
thunderstorms grow in coverage and intensity this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...At 1915Z, convection was slowly increasing across the
eastern half of OH, along and ahead of a cold front moving into
central OH. Thus far, this activity has been slow to intensify, due
to weak midlevel lapse rates and marginal buoyancy. However,
large-scale support from the upper low over the northern Great Lakes
and continued heating should support a gradual increase in shower
and thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon.
Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and sufficient effective shear
may support some weakly rotating updrafts and/or a few small bowing
segments, which would pose a threat of primarily damaging wind,
especially in areas where low-level lapse rates have steepened due
to heating. 

Due to uncertainty regarding the coverage and magnitude of the
threat, watch issuance is considered unlikely at this time. However,
if multiple organized storm structures begin to evolve, the need for
watch issuance will be reevaluated.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   39048356 40228329 41108310 41608312 41578231 41918069
            41428067 40688073 40058089 39288109 38108163 37908398
            38218388 39048356 

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