Mesoscale Discussion 0574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Areas affected...Far eastern TN...Far western NC...Far western SC...Northeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271929Z - 272100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region over the next few hours. A few of these storms may be strong enough to occasionally produce hail and/or damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown a gradual increase in storm intensity over the past hour or so, particularly across northeast GA. Low-level moisture is more limited farther north into far eastern TN/far western NC with dewpoints currently still generally in the upper 50s. Additionally, diurnal heating has been suppressed by abundant cloud cover. The resulting combination of modest dewpoints, warm mid-level temperatures, and tempered heating is keeping instability low with recent mesoanalysis estimating recent MLCAPE across this area is 500 J/kg or less. The lack of instability has suppressed robust convective development thus far but there is some potential for the gradual strengthening trend noted recently to continue. Given the favorable kinematic environment, transient rotation is possible with any well-established updrafts, supporting an isolated hail/damaging wind threat. Farther south into northeast GA and adjacent far western SC the low-level airmass is more moist and unstable, evidenced by the stronger convection along the southern end of the line. Cloud cover has tempered heating here as well but the better low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg. Bulk shear here is also supportive of rotating updrafts capable of isolated hail and damaging wind gusts. Tempered magnitude and low coverage of the potential severe is expected to preclude the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Hart.. 04/27/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 36028308 36348213 35888178 34068292 34088431 36028308Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/JUWJ9O
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