SPC MD 580

MD 0580 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

Mesoscale Discussion 0580
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Areas affected...parts of southern Indiana...central and southern
Ohio...north central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 282248Z - 290045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development north of the Ohio River, along
and just south of the Interstate 70 corridor, will continue to be
monitored for intensification and increasing organization which
could require a severe weather watch this evening.

DISCUSSION...Sustained ongoing thunderstorm development to the north
of the Ohio River appears largely supported by, and rooted within,
an area of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection which
appears likely to steadily spread east northeastward along/just
south of the Interstate 70 corridor of of Indiana and Ohio through
the 01-03Z time frame.  This also appears roughly coupled with a 2-4
mb 2 hourly surface pressure fall center now developing northeast of
Louisville toward the Cincinnati metropolitan area.

Beneath a pronounced mid-level height rise center, severe weather
potential remains somewhat uncertain, but continued development in
the presence of steepening mid-level lapse rates on the nose of
warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed layer air emanating
from the Plains may provide at least potential for substantive
intensification this evening.  In the presence of strong wind
fields/shear within the convective layer (50+ kt mean ambient
westerly flow), there appears at least potential for the gradual
evolution of an organizing convective system that could eventually
be accompanied by a risk for severe surface gusts, in addition to
some severe hail.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   40248632 40518415 40628152 40018094 38878229 38508428
            38398650 38328724 39138741 39888707 40248632 

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