Mesoscale Discussion 0582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017
Areas affected...Portions of central and western OK...the eastern TX
Panhandle/South Plains...and western North Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 290318Z - 290515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe weather risk is increasing late this evening
and will spread east during the overnight hours. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is forthcoming.
DISCUSSION...The eastern periphery of deep ascent peripheral to a
cyclone over the Southwest States will continue impinging on the
northwestern extent of a warm sector, which extends as far north as
central OK into the TX Panhandle. Moderately steep midlevel lapse
rates around 7.5 C/km surmounting relatively rich low-level moisture
supporting MUCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg will support robust updraft
development during the next few hours -- as isentropic ascent and
DCVA increase. With 55-70 kt of effective shear, initial supercell
structures with large hail will be likely -- from parts of northwest
TX into southwest/west-central OK. Eventually, a forward-propagating
convective cluster/MCS may spread eastward along a zone of
frontogenesis near/south of the Interstate 40 corridor, associated
with an increasing severe-wind risk during the overnight hours
across parts of central and southern OK.
..Cohen/Thompson.. 04/29/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33650056 34740060 35729977 36279814 36009680 34759689
33879841 33650056
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