Mesoscale Discussion 0592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Areas affected...southeast through east central Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 291750Z - 291915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may intensify as they develop through southeast and
east central MO. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms extends across southwest MO. The
northern portion of this line is the most organized just northeast
of Springfield, and has evolved into a bow echo with rear inflow jet
moving east northeast near 50 kt. These storms remain slightly
elevated north of effective warm front/modifying outflow boundary.
However, as this boundary advances north, the line will eventually
intercept a moist and destabilizing boundary layer which should
result in some intensification. VWP data show strong deep-layer
winds and sufficient effective shear for storms to organize. However
as the upper ridge builds, tendency will be for winds aloft to
weaken over time. Damaging wind is expected to be the primary threat
given dominant linear mode, but a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled
out as activity develops east this afternoon.
..Dial/Weiss.. 04/29/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 36979024 36469232 37529228 38119234 38629174 38799006
37888954 36979024
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